Hypothesis

Before the launch of a product and through measurement of user behavior, everything is a hypothesis.

You always have to create hypothesis and test it. Otherwise, you are just guessing. Create a simple assumption like: more people will click this red button. Indicate the metrics, like percent of clicks.

Or use a more complicated format like:

We believe that [ doing this / building this feature / creating this experience], for [these people/personas], will achieve [this outcome]. We will know this to be true when we see [this feedback / quantitative measure / qualitative insight ].

Then test the hypothesis. Remember, you can be affected by confirmation bias, which means you may try to prove yourself right, instead of just testing the hypothesis. Be careful and try to see where you are wrong.

Your hypotheses don’t have to attempt to cure cancer, but they can and should be simple. Here are some hypotheses and corresponding metrics:

• More people will click the red button than blue (percent of button clicks).
• Customers will know to scroll down the homepage to view the services (percent of users who scroll down).
• The new product names will reduce confusion (time to selection, perceived difficulty).